The New York Times
Before diplomacy begins, Israel attacks Gaza with ground troops
BRUSSELS – American and Egyptian mediators travel to Israel to begin de-escalation talks, but antagonists face critical policy decisions before agreeing to start discussions on ending the violence. Both Israel and Hamas must first find ways to create a victory narrative for their public, analysts say, but the task will be easier for Hamas than it is for Israel. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has to calculate the impact of the fighting on his own political fate, which is further complicated by the internal unrest between Jews and Israeli Arabs in numerous cities in Israel. The crucial decision for Israel is whether to send ground troops to Gaza for “victory”, which would prolong the conflict and significantly increase the number of dead and wounded on both sides. Sign up for The Morning Newsletter from the New York Times. For the Palestinians, the indefinite postponement of the elections by Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas last month created a vacuum that Hamas is more than ready to fill. Hamas argues that it is the only Palestinian faction that is defending the holy sites of Jerusalem with its large supply of improved missiles and making Abbas a spectator. President Joe Biden has spoken to Netanyahu and reiterated the usual formula about Israel’s right to self-defense, and he has dispatched a seasoned diplomat, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Hady Amr, to demand de-escalation on both sides. But the United States does not speak to Hamas and see it as a terrorist organization, and Abbas has no real control over Gaza or Hamas. Most likely, Amr will speak to Egyptian security officials, as Egypt has been the usual interlocutor at the conclusion of rounds of war between Israel and Hamas. This includes the last two major explosions in 2008 and 2014, when the fighting lasted more than 50 days. According to the state-controlled newspaper Al-Ahram and broadcaster Al-Arabiya, Egypt dispatched security officials to Tel Aviv, Israel, and Gaza on Thursday to initiate talks. Officially, the Egyptian Foreign Ministry, which does not deal with Hamas, had no comment. On Tuesday, Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry told an Arab League meeting that Egypt had contacted Israel and other “affected countries” in an attempt to calm the violence, but that Israel had not responded. Abdel Monem Said Aly, a longtime Egyptian and regional relations analyst in Cairo, said “Egypt will do its best” in the interests of regional stability. However, he warned that Netanyahu’s decision to deploy ground forces would determine how long this round of violence lasted. “The problem is much more complicated than before,” he said, citing internal Israeli and Palestinian policies and Egypt’s efforts to “steer the entire region into another, more stable future.” Egypt has influence over Hamas because of its land border with Gaza, which Cairo can close or relax at will. “And of course Egypt will talk to Saudi Arabia and the emirates who have money about rebuilding Gaza,” said Aly. “But the problem in Israel is not in speaking to Mr. Netanyahu – it’s easy – but in the winds in Israel itself and in the great competition between different brands of conservatism.” On the Palestinian side, he said, “There is a similar vacuum of political legitimacy, and Hamas will score points by sharpening Palestinian public opinion and increasing the blame on the Palestinians in Islamic countries and gaining more legitimacy for future elections.” Said Aly fears that the events will exacerbate Islamic radicalism in both Gaza and Israel among the young Arab population. “Of course Egypt will talk to everyone,” he said. “We will talk about the problems of the entire region and not rule out the Palestinian question. But how much someone can help now is not clear. “Hamas also has reason to distrust Egypt and its leader, President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi, according to Michele Dunne, a former American official and director of the Carnegie Endowment’s Middle East program. El-Sissi sees Hamas as a branch of the Muslim Brotherhood, which remains powerful in Egypt, and in 2014 he did little to prevent Israel from invading Gaza in hopes of destroying Hamas. It can take a long time for the violence to subside, said Mark Heller of the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University. “At some point Israel will remember that it is impossible to achieve a decisive outcome at a manageable cost for itself,” he said, “and Hamas realizes that the costs and risks to its own political viability and control of Gaza are also increasing . ” a lot. “At this point, Heller said, Hamas agrees,” what they say is always a temporary truce, not peace, and usually receives some sort of payoff, I suspect this time from the Qataris. “Egypt is usually the interlocutor.” and the fig leaf “for negotiations between Hamas and Israel, which both sides deny, but which go on almost uninterrupted on many smaller issues,” he said. Egypt is aware that it will have to mend fences with Biden following the departure of former President Donald Trump said Daniel Levy, president of the US / Middle East project. “I think Cairo wants to show Biden its importance,” he said, noting the start of reconciliation talks with Qatar and Turkey, a wealthy emirate that funds both Hamas and the Arab news operation Al-Jazeera, and Turkey was a strict follower of Hamas, which had brought them into conflict with Egypt Ahl von Biden, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates cautiously followed suit to calm relations with Qatar and Turkey. Muslim countries have criticized Israel’s actions, but so far largely superficially, as many of their leaders distrust Islamist radicalism. Many Arab countries have ignored the Palestinian issue and look past Abbas to see and manipulate who will succeed him as head of Fatah and the Palestine Liberation Organization. But given the great Israeli attention to the internal strife between young Jewish and Arab citizens, Levy said many things are in the air and the struggle for Gaza may seem less important. It could also distract the Israeli security forces, making a ground break less likely. “This dispute is an extremely disorienting and worrying development and, frankly, far more worrying than Hamas,” said Heller. “The army can take care of Hamas, but we need something to take care of Israeli society, and we don’t currently have that.” This article originally appeared in the New York Times. © 2021 The New York Times Company
