After three months of speculation, we can finally narrow the Pac-12-Bowl projections down to a handful of scenarios.
But before we make our best guesses, two important reminders of the process:
1. The Alamo, Las Vegas, and Holiday bowls offer some flexibility in your choices. You may skip one team in favor of another as long as the difference in conference balance is no more than one game.
2. The Sun and LA bowls must be selected from the remaining teams in the order of the conference record.
To help readers visualize the process, here are the eligible teams with conference recording (and listed alphabetically if there is a tie):
Utah: 8-1
Oregon: 7-2
State of Arizona: 6-3
UCLA: 6-3
Washington State: 6-3
State of Oregon: 5-4
If we apply the above process, the following framework results:
– Utah cannot fall under the Alamo Bowl if the Utes lose the Conference championship game because they have a two game advantage over one of the remaining teams. The Alamo would have to choose her.
(The championship game does not count towards the conference record, only towards a team’s overall score.)
– Oregon must be selected because of the two-game separation before Oregon State.
– Oregon State (5-4) cannot play in the Sun Bowl, which must select teams in order of record and is guaranteed to have a 7-2 or 6-3 option. If the beavers are not selected for Las Vegas or Holiday, they will automatically fall into the LA Bowl.
– ASU, UCLA or WSU could get into the Alamo, but only if Utah wins the conference title.
The tips will be updated after the championship game …
(All times Pacific)
Rose Bowl (versus Big Ten)
Date: January 1st (2pm, ESPN)
Team: Oregon
Comment: The Ducks are our pick to win the rematch against Utah. Of course, they were our pick to win the first showdown which shows what we know. But we do know this: it would take a miserable performance for the Alamo to lose the Ducks if they lose Friday night because none of the options available would have 10 wins or (most likely) ranked. Likely opponent in Pasadena: Ohio State.
Alamo Bowl (versus Big 12)
Date: Dec 29 (6:15 p.m., ESPN)
Team: Utah
Comment: A major loss in Las Vegas could hold Alamo executives on hold – especially given Utah was there (and beaten up) in 2019 – but the Utes would still be incarcerated.
Las Vegas Bowl (vs. Big Ten)
Date: Dec 30 (7:30 p.m., ESPN)
Team: State of Arizona
Comment: Our current inclination, however slight, is with the Sun Devils, in part because they beat UCLA head-to-head. Plus, her fans usually travel well to Las Vegas and would not have visited Sin City for an ASU event during this sports cycle. In contrast, thousands of die-hard UCLA fans were just there for the Gonzaga showdown, or might be heading to the North Carolina game in a couple of weeks.
Vacation bowl
Date: Dec 28 (5 p.m., FOX)
Team: UCLA
Comment: An easy trip for fans and a bowl the Bruins haven’t visited since 2012. We don’t expect UCLA to slip past the holidays, but Las Vegas is certainly an option if Bowl officials are concerned that the NCAA investigation could adversely affect ASU in the next few weeks. (This seems unlikely, but it cannot be completely ruled out.)
Sunshell
Date: December 31 (9:00 a.m., CBS)
Team: Washington
Comment: Enough time has passed since the Cougars’ last visit to El Paso in 2015 to interest fans. Why not put the WSU in either the Las Vegas or Holiday Bowl, especially given the head-to-head win over ASU? One reason: The Sun Devils’ 8-4 record is easier to sell than the WSU’s 7-5 record. Also, the Bruins and Sun Devils have more marketable head coaches.
LA bowl
Date: December 18 (4:30 p.m., ABC)
Team: State of Oregon
Comment: The combination of the OSU’s 7-5 overall record and the 5-4 conference record severely limits the likelihood of either the Las Vegas or Holiday Bowls issuing an invite, although the Beavers are likely a solid bet for ticket sales and hotel bookings .
Not eligible: Arizona, Cal, Colorado, Stanford, USC, and Washington
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